AuthorJay Hiza We all know the story by now – PSG wanted Neymar, Neymar wanted to step out of Messi’s shadow, PSG ponied up €222 million in order to poach the Brazilian from Barcelona and bring him to Paris. Barca – in turn – spending combined €280 million to bring in Philippe Coutinho and Ousmane Dembele, the latter being viewed as a direct replacement for the departed Neymar. That’s it, end of story, right? Well, not quite. While all of those facts are true and easy to understand, there is almost certain to be long-lasting repercussions for the clubs involved and for football in general. Barca had money to burn, and they did so – splashing the cash for two players – and in turn enriched two other clubs with European aspirations. That’s fair enough, but what everyone seems to want to ignore is the fact that this one transfer – Neymar to PSG – may have completely broken football. I hear the collective sighs; I see the collective eye-rolling. You’re saying, “Yeah, sure it was stupid money, but that was a one-off. We’re not going to see transfers like this very often”. You might be right if this were 2001. Back then, it was considered obscene for Real Madrid to spend €87 million on Zidane. That amount stood as the world record transfer until 2009, when Real Madrid broke their own record to sign Cristiano Ronaldo from Manchester United for roughly €96million, and then again in 2013 when they spent €113 million on Gareth Bale. Then United came along three years later and upped the ante by paying €119 million for Paul Pogba. That was supposed to be the threshold. We were done with ridiculous transfer fees. The amount of money being spent was not justified by the return on investment these players were giving their clubs. Both Zidane and Ronaldo have – unarguably – justified their fees. Zidane was instrumental in Real Madrid’s return to glory, scoring 37 goals in 155 appearances for Los Blancos, none more crucial than his volley against Leverkusen in the 2002 Champion’s League final. Ronaldo has done even better – helping guide Real to three Champion’s league titles in four years, winning UEFA’s Best Player in Europe award three times, and the coveted Ballon d’Or in four of the last five years. His current market value (according to Transfermarkt) is €122 million - €26 million higher than his transfer fee. On the other hand, Gareth Bale’s market value has dropped to €76.5 million (€32 million below his purchase price), while Paul Pogba’s market value sits at just €92 million (€27 million below the price United paid for him). Neither Bale nor Pogba have come close to justifying their transfer fees, though Bale has had – undoubtedly – more impact at his club. As previously mentioned, that was supposed to be it. With only one out of the three most expensive players in the world not carrying their weight, the market was supposed to correct itself. Then Neymar shifted the paradigm. While being an undeniably talented and world class player, Neymar is not worth €222 million. His current value sits at €184 million – a staggering €38 million below the fee paid to acquire him, and while he’s had a remarkable first season in Paris, he hasn’t put in a quarter of a billion euros worth of work. The thing is that I don’t expect him to. He can’t. Living up to a quarter billion euro price tag is impossible unless you win multiple European titles. Messi and Ronaldo are worth that much to their clubs because they’ve been crucial in the success of their respective clubs. Messi is probably more valuable than Ronaldo, simply because he cost Barcelona nothing to acquire. But riddle me this – how does Neymar have the exact same market value - €184 million – as Lionel Messi? As I stated previously, nobody doubts Neymar’s talent. He’s a generational player with tremendous ability, but for all of his talent, Barca won only one UCL title in his time at the club. Compare that to Messi’s absurd trophy haul during his Barcelona tenure and you’ll see just how evident the gulf in class between the two is. If Neymar cost €222, then Messi should be valued around the €400 million mark – no questions asked. Ok, so I’ve just thrown a bunch of numbers at you, so what do they mean? Well in a vacuum, nothing. Taken together, they paint a picture of diminishing returns from the players commanding the highest transfer fees, and they should also be setting the tone for the future. Phlippe Coutinho transferred to Barcelona for €122 million, yet his current market value stands at roughly €92 million – already €30 million below his purchase price. Keep in mind, he’s cup tied in Europe, and has only played 12 games for the Blaugrana. That’s a fairly precipitous drop in value in only a month and a half. Similarly, Ousmane Dembele was brought in for €107 million, and is valued at just €81 million - €26 million below his transfer fee. Meanwhile – on the back-heels of the Neymar/Coutinho/Dembele saga, Liverpool have spent over €80 million on Virgil Van Dijk – a center back – who, while very good, is currently valued at only €51 million – nearly €30 million below the price the Reds paid for him.
That fee for Van Dijk is the telling stat here, and it is representative of just how drastically the Neymar transfer has affected the transfer market’s landscape. Prior to Van Dijk, the most expensive transfer in history was Kyle Walker, who joined cash-rich Manchester City from Spurs for €61.2 million. Kyle Walker is good, but €61 million is an absurd amount to pay for a defensive player, and yet that transfer is nearly €20 million cheaper than the Van Dijk to Liverpool deal. Again, Van Dijk is very good, but paying only €3 million less for him than Barca paid for Luis Suarez… That’s egregious. That brings me to my overarching point – that the Neymar transfer has fundamentally altered the transfer market, and not for the better. With the World Cup looming, we’re about to enter the “silly season”, where clubs overspend on players to begin with, but the Neymar transfer has moved the needle so much that players no longer command fair market value. In order to bring in a player of any real quality, clubs are looking at a bottom-line price of €60 million. We’re virtually guaranteed that clubs will be spending well in excess of that though. Icardi, Dybala, Immobile, Bale, Benzema, Donnarumma, etc. are all likely to be on the move this summer, and even the man himself – Neymar – is rumoured to want a move back to Spain with Real Madrid. Based on the current market trend, all of those players will command price tags north of €110 million, yet none of them are truly worth that much. And therein lays the problem – when clubs are forced to pay exorbitant amounts for players who can’t justify their fees, then only the teams with the most cash can afford to do business. Therefore, the Neymar transfer has effectively rendered football a “pay to play” sport, where only the wealthiest clubs can afford quality players. That means clubs like Bayern, Barca, Real, United, City, and PSG are going to be able to afford good players. Football is supposed to be a meritocracy, and the Neymar transfer has effectively destroyed that. |
AuthorsJust Some Fans Writing About Football. Archives
June 2018
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